Housing Trends in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area – A-Square Inc. / Chieko Yano

The new fiscal year has begun, and on March 18, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications released its population estimates. As of October 1, 2024, Japan’s total population stood at 123.80 million, a decrease of 550,000 (–0.44 %) from the previous year—marking the 14th consecutive year of decline. By prefecture, only Tokyo and Saitama saw population increases. Tokyo’s population growth rate was 0.66 %, up from 0.32 % the prior year. In contrast, 45 prefectures experienced declines, and three prefectures posted decline rates above 1 %: Akita (–1.87 %), Aomori (–1.66 %), and Iwate (–1.57 %). These figures are up three prefectures from the previous year, underscoring the pronounced concentration around Tokyo.

How does the average floor area per dwelling compare across prefectures? According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism’s 2024 Housing and Economic Data, the largest average floor area per dwelling is in Toyama Prefecture at 140.01 m², followed by Fukui at 136.71 m² and Yamagata at 134.44 m²; Akita, Niigata, and Shimane round out the next largest. The smallest average is in Tokyo at 64.02 m², followed by Okinawa, Osaka, and Kanagawa. Excluding Okinawa—where rentals make up a large share—housing in the Tokyo metro area is notably compact.

What about trends over time? Focusing on new condominium exclusive areas, Real Estate Economic Institute Co. reports that in the Tokyo metropolitan area (Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba), the average exclusive area was 71.16 m² in 2014, 69.22 m² in 2016, 68.00 m² in 2019, and 66.42 m² in 2024. Over the past decade, dwelling sizes have steadily shrunk.

In March, this year’s public land prices were published. Land prices are rising nationwide, with the three major metropolitan regions continuing to see expanding growth. When building housing in high-priced urban cores, rising construction and labor costs force developers to secure living space within very limited footprints, resulting in smaller floor areas. At the same time, demographic shifts and changing lifestyles have increased single-person households, driving demand for smaller layouts. Although “minimalist” once trended as a buzzword, its advantages—reduced consumption, easier cleaning, more personal time, less stress (and more relaxing), heightened concentration, and greater agility—resonate precisely in compact urban living. With city populations growing and living spaces shrinking, it becomes important to embrace these benefits, eliminate waste, and aim for a comfortable lifestyle even within limited square meters.

A-Square Inc.

Real Estate Appraiser Chieko Yano

Reprinted from Real Estate Management Journal Co., Ltd. “Weekly Real Estate Management” (with permission)

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